Putin’s World Policy: Exploit Division, Dismantle NATO, Destroy Democracy.

Recent divides in Western politics are not random but orchestrated by aggressive Russian foreign policy to weaken democracies and establish Russian dominance in Eurasia and the Arctic.

The Plans Were Published in 1997

When Vladimir Putin assumed the Russian presidency in 2000, few Western analysts foresaw the sophisticated and extensive methods he would deploy to undermine the Western order. Today, his ambitions are clear: to erode and ultimately dismantle two key pillars of Western supranational security and economic prosperity—NATO and the EU.

Yet, while these aims were unrecognised, they were advertised. A Russian political text, "The Geopolitical Future of Russia", first published in 1997 by Aleksander Dugin, outlines an extreme nationalist plan for Russian domination. The book was well received in Russia, especially among the police and armed forces, and is now issued as a political textbook.

If it hasn't written Putin's policy, then it’s been remarkably prescient.

The 1997 Russian Political Texbook outlines an aggressive plan for Eurasian dominance.

In its plan for Russian domination of Eurasia it recommends dividing the United States with internal racial and social divisions, then turning the US isolationist to weaken NATO. It then advises supporting separatist regional nationalists to distract and divide European countries, isolating the UK from the EU while promoting far-right movements to weaken both. It also has a chapter arguing that an independent sovereign Ukraine must be assimilated under Russian control.

These are only the initial stages of the plan it outlines; if it truly is the blueprint for Russian foreign policy under Putin, then worse is to come.

Conciliation to Confrontation: The Evolution of Putin’s Foreign Policy

The early years of Putin's presidency saw a pragmatic, almost conciliatory approach to the West while he consolidated power domestically.¹ He crushed internal dissent, ²stabilised the Russian economy³, and leveraged Western partnerships⁴ where useful. As he became increasingly authoritarian, his wars in Chechnya⁵, his rejection of liberal democracy and multilateralism, and his push for nationalist fervour signalled a pivot towards aggression.

The Arab Spring⁶ alarmed him - particularly the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, a pro-Russian leader toppled by Western-backed uprisings. Putin saw this as a threat that internal protests could topple his own regime. He also feared the former Soviet States and Russian-aligned Middle Eastern states, turning to the liberal West - interpreting this as Western Encroachment. To this end, he backed pro-Russian leaders in former Soviet states to keep them out of NATO and the EU and military support to Assad in Syria.

When Ukraine's 2014 'Revolution of Dignity'⁷ ousted the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in favour of a pro-EU government, Russia responded with the annexation of Crimea and started on the path to the ongoing war in Ukraine, justifying it as a defensive action.

This marked a tipping point in relations with the West. International sanctions followed, security cooperation with NATO collapsed, and diplomatic relations deteriorated.

The Old Enemy: Weakening NATO

At the core of Putin's foreign policy lies a long-standing Russian ambition: fracture NATO.⁸ Established in Washington in 1949 to counter Soviet power, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation remains an existential threat to Putin's vision of a Russian empire. His strategy is twofold: destabilising NATO's cohesion and asserting Russian 'salami' style territorial power grabs in Eastern Europe and the Arctic.⁹

"The commitment to a peaceful solution of all problems that arise in the Arctic region is confirmed. The provisions of the concept assume that the anti-Russian steps of unfriendly states will be consistently and, if necessary, severely suppressed."

Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister 2023¹⁰

The Arctic's strategic importance is growing as melting ice opens new shipping routes and access to mineral resources. Russia, the only non-NATO nation with Arctic claims, has aggressively militarised the region.

Donald Trump: Russian Agent, Asset or Ally?

Putin's greatest foreign policy achievement has been the election of Donald Trump. Whether as a witting agent, a target of компромат,¹¹ or simply an admirer of authoritarianism, Trump's actions consistently align with Russian Strategic interests.

His presidencies have already seen him -

• Threatening US Withdrawal from NATO¹²

• Undermining Article 5¹³

• Blocking Ukraine's NATO Aspirations¹⁴

• Withdrawing US Troops from NATO's European Command centre in Germany¹⁵

• Cutting military Aid to Ukraine¹⁶

• Voting against allies and with Russia in the United Nations¹⁷, and

• Openly Threatening to invade and annex NATO Allies, Canada and Greenland¹⁸.

Conclusion: The US under Donald Trump must now be considered closely aligned with Russian foreign policy and against its previous close allies.

Divide and Conquer: Supporting Separatism

Putin has mastered hybrid warfare. In Ukraine, he uses overt military aggression, while against Europe and the US, we see covert subversion through financing, propaganda, and online disinformation. A key tactic is supporting separatist movements to fracture Western unity. In Ukraine, he fuelled pro-Russian nationalist movements¹⁹, arming them with propaganda, money, and paramilitary support. But his divide-and-conquer tactics extend beyond former Soviet states.

Scottish Independence Campaign 2014

The Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament described the circumstances surrounding the referendum for Scottish independence as "the first post-Soviet interference in a Western democratic election".

UK Defence Journal July 2020²⁰

The key active measure was following the vote when the Russians launched a disinformation campaign to draw doubt on the legitimacy of the result,²¹ As reported by Ben Nimmo, an analyst for the NATO-aligned US think tank, the Atlantic Council.

"The allegations of fraud demonstrably had an impact; pro-Kremlin accounts demonstrably boosted those allegations. The anger and disappointment felt by many yes voters were entirely sincere [and] those sentiments were fanned by pro-Kremlin trolls, in a manner characteristic of Russian influence operations."

Ben Nimmo - The Atlantic Council

Designed to undermine faith in democracy, Russian state media and aligned online accounts pushed the narrative that the vote was rigged: a direct live ‘active measure’ for Trump's 2020 ‘Desinformatsiya’ narrative that the election was stolen, which then directly fuelled the January 6th insurrection.

Scottish nationalism also presented a direct threat to NATO's Arctic defence. Scotland hosts the NATO Faslane submarine base, which is critical for defending against Russian submarine movements in the North Atlantic²². An independent Scotland threatened to force the UK's nuclear deterrent out, and ban nuclear weapons from Scottish ports and waters weakening NATO's strategic defences.

Alex Salmond, Scotland's First Minister and leader of the Nationalist campaign for independence, was asked at the time by Alastair Campbell if he 'admired' Putin. He said

"Certain aspects. He's restored a substantial part of Russian pride, and that must be a good thing."

Alex Salmond - GQ Magazine²³

While the Scottish Nationalists ultimately failed to break up the United Kingdom, some went on to profit. Alex Salmond went on to host a talk show on RT²⁴ ( previously Russia Today )- A Kremlin-owned propaganda channel designed to promote Russian foreign policy in other countries.²⁵

Brexit: Putin's EU Disruption Strategy

A strong European Union challenges Russian ambitions. Putin's objectives are to undermine EU cohesion through financial interference, propaganda, and exacerbating internal divisions within and between EU states.

Investigations into Nigel Farage and Arron Banks, the leading Brexit financier, uncovered troubling ties to Russian officials and finance²⁶. Isabel Oakeshott wrote in the Times

"The Kremlin was simply doing what it does so well: identifying individuals who might be useful to President Vladimir Putin's geopolitical aims and seeing what might come of it."

Isabel Oakeshott, The Times

Under Boris Johnson, who has Russian links himself²⁷, the UK parliamentary investigation that uncovered Russian interference in Scotland was blocked from investigating Russian interference in the Brexit campaign. PM Johnson delayed the publication of the report until after the 2019 election.²⁸

Outside of Scotland, Russian disinformation campaigns also amplified separatists such as the Catalan independence movement²⁹, and have sought to engineer division between the EU and the US. Putin has capitalised on deteriorating transatlantic relations using Trump's trade wars and isolationism.³⁰ By first supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine and then invading, Putin has so far ensured Ukraine remains outside the EU.³¹

What Comes Next?

Russian foreign policy this century has played out extremely closely to the "Geopolitical Future of Russia" plan - Sow Western division, Isolate the US, Annexe Ukraine.

Sowing division in the U.S.

Encouraging separatism, ethnic strife, and extremist movements to destabilise American politics.

“Russia should introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social, and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics"³²

The Geopolitical Future of Russia, Dugin 1997

Breaking up the UK

Supporting Scottish and Welsh nationalism to weaken British influence in Europe.

“European and more broadly Eurasian support for Irish, Scottish and Welsh nationalism, to the extent of encouraging separatist tendencies and political destabilization of the UK, will have to play a significant role”

The Geopolitical Future of Russia, Dugin 1997

Isolating the UK from Europe – Advocating for Brexit-like policies to prevent a unified European front against Russia.

“England will inevitably become the scapegoat, as European continental integration processes will have to proceed not just without regard to British interests, but even in direct opposition to those interests.”

The Annexation of Ukraine

Russian denial of Ukrainian sovereignty and planned annexation

“Ukrainian sovereignty is such a negative phenomenon for Russian geopolitics that, in principle, it could easily provoke an armed conflict…Ukraine as an independent state with some kind of territorial ambitions poses a huge threat to the whole of Eurasia, and without solving the Ukrainian problem at all it makes no sense to talk about continental geopolitics. … strategically Ukraine should be strictly a projection of Moscow to the south and west…The absolute imperative of Russian geopolitics on the Black Sea coast is Moscow’s total and unfettered control over its entire length from the Ukrainian to the Abkhaz territories.”

The Geopolitical Future of Russia, Dugin 1997

Whether Putin actively follows this text or not, his foreign policy aligns with its prescriptions.

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the Brexit referendum, and the subsequent Brexit fallout have distracted and dominated British politics for a decade. Aside from weakening our economy, it turned our attention inward while Russia annexed Crimea. Putin's systematic destabilisation of NATO and the EU is still playing out. His manipulation of Western politics through financial interference, disinformation, and political engineering was unprecedented in modern history, and has done colossal damage, but can be countered.

If there is divergence, it is with Russia’s relationship with China. Dugin had warned in 1997 that the USA and China would unite against Russia, in fact, Western Sanctions on Russia have pushed Russia and China closer together.³³

If Putin continues to follow the ultimate Eurasian Vision of the 1997 book, we can expect Russia to seek control of Finland and Latvia having neutralised NATO repercussions, to secure access to Russia's Arctic northern submarine port and control exposed mineral beds, to aim for the annexation of complete control of the Black Sea coast from Ukraine to Abkhaz, and to critically destabilise the EU and UK by promoting Russian supporting right-wing populism, with the ultimate aim of dividing Poland with a far-right Germany, and absorbing former Soviet States in Eastern Europe.

Western liberal democracies, currently consumed by internal strife, must wake up.

• Strengthen a NATO that can no longer rely on the US.

• Reinforce European democratic institutions.

• Bring the UK back into the European fold.

• Remilitarise.

• Stand firm in support of Ukraine.

• Tackle far-right and nationalist internal threats, and

• Most urgently: counter and expose Russian influence operations and cyber warfare.

We are running out of time.

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