Worst Case Scenario
It may look like preppers worry about the future and Stoics shouldn't - so how can their mindsets be combined to maximise resilience? - By combining Premeditatio Malorum and the PACE framework!
The Stoic Practice of "Premeditatio Malorum" builds our mental defences against an evil future, while the "P.A.C.E." practice of the prepper fosters practical preparedness in anticipation of challenges. The two techniques are powerful individually; combined, they go hand in hand in building resilience, with benefits proven by the "Negative Visualisation" of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy.
In this article, I'll look at both practices, how I combine them, and the proof that they are psychologically effective.
Premeditatio Malorum
"Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present."
Marcus Aurelius
Stoicism teaches the value of mental fortitude and resilience. Central to this philosophy is the concept of Premeditatio Malorum, which translates to "The Forethought of Evil Things." or "Thinking about bad things that might happen in the future."
This practice involves contemplating potential future adversities not as a form of pessimism but as a strategy for mental preparation. When Marcus tells us not to let the future disturb us, he does not mean don't plan or don't think about the future- he means the future is beyond our control, but whatever happens, we know we can choose to react to it, rationally, and that it does not have power over us.
Overview of Premeditatio Malorum
The practice dates back to Cynic philosophers but is better known from the Late Stoa.
The core of Premeditatio Malorum involves imagining the worst-case scenarios in various aspects of life, such as personal loss, professional setbacks, or health issues, or with a specific project. The purpose is not to dwell on negativity but to mentally prepare for these possibilities. This does two things - it can help you realise that the worst outcome isn't that bad, and if the worst does happen - you have already mentally addressed it. You will not panic because you have considered your response, or if the worst happens and you haven't planned a specific reaction, you at least know that you have the rational tools to deal with disaster.
Stoics are encouraged to incorporate this exercise into their daily routine. It could be a part of morning meditation or reflective journaling. The process involves three key steps:
Daily Ritual: Reflect on potential challenges of the day and devise contingency plans.
Contemplation of Loss: Meditate on the loss of possessions or status and mentally prepare for such eventualities.
Acceptance of Mortality: Acknowledge the impermanence of life and relationships, fostering a deeper appreciation and gratitude for the present - as I looked at in this article on Death.
Here's how my internal monologue of Premeditatio Malorum might play out for a job interview
Negative Thought: What if I don't get the job?!
Rationalisation: It's important to remember that not getting the job doesn't reflect negatively on my worth, character or abilities. Most job interviews result in rejection for the majority of candidates. This is a common outcome, and I can't control the competition. Rejection will still provide valuable interview experience for future interviews, helping me improve my skills.
Realising that this is the worst possible result of an interview, but also the most likely, and that you will be OK if you don't get the job can settle nerves.
Worry: What if I am late for the interview?
Rationalisation: While I should try to arrive on time, unforeseen circumstances can sometimes lead to lateness. Reminding myself that I can only control what's within my power is crucial. If I'm late due to reasons beyond my control, it's not the end of the world. I can still make the best of the interview and express my apologies. If they hold it against me to the extent I don't get the job despite being the best candidate, then I am dodging a bullet by not working there.
Worry: What if they laugh at me during the interview?
Rationalisation: If someone laughed at me during the interview, it would indicate that the company may not be the right fit for me. I've thoroughly prepared and presented myself to the best of my abilities. Any unprofessional behaviour from their side reflects on them, not on my competence or character.
Worry: What if my Presentation gets lost?
Rationalisation: To mitigate this concern, I can take proactive steps such as bringing spare copies of my Presentation and having an online version readily available. If it were to get lost, it would be an opportunity to demonstrate my preparedness by offering a spare copy or directing them to the online version. This could even be a positive display of adaptability and resourcefulness.
Worry: What if I forget my answers or freeze during the interview?
Rationalisation: It's common for nerves to affect performance in high-pressure situations like interviews. However, I can prepare by thoroughly researching the company and practising my responses to common interview questions. Even if I forget an answer or experience a momentary freeze, I can take a deep breath, refocus, and continue. Remember, perfection isn't expected, and interviewers appreciate honesty and resilience.
Worry: What if I don't know the answer to a technical question?
Rationalisation: Having only some answers is acceptable, especially in technical interviews. Rather than guessing or panicking, I can acknowledge my limitations and be willing to learn. This demonstrates humility and a growth mindset, qualities that many employers value.
In embracing these rationalisations, I am better equipped to approach the interview with a Stoic mindset, understanding that its outcome does not solely define my worth and that I can only control my own actions and preparations.
If I am asked a technical question, I don't know; although I don't know the question, I am still prepared for it. This perspective will help me maintain composure and focus during the interview, regardless of the circumstances. It can also help me 'park' those worries. I have considered them and my response. I know I can rationally react if it happens, and I do not need to worry about that again.
It's important to stress this practice with balance. You can think of bad things happening but must not be disturbed by them. I shouldn't be up all night before the interview, stressing that I will be late. Overemphasis on negative outcomes can lead to anxiety, especially for those predisposed to it. It's OK to think positively as well! If this practice causes you anxiety rather than relieving it, it may be beneficial to try other techniques or seek more guidance.
Be Prepared
"Be Prepared"
Boy Scouts Motto
The stereotypical image of 'preppers' might be jars of pickled eggs and gas masks in a nuclear bunker. Still, the everyday reality of most 'preppers' in my experience is closer to the cub scout mentality, with his Swiss Army Knife and motto of "Be Prepared.” This is, after all, the etymology of "Prepper" - those who are preparing.
PACE Yourself
The P.A.C.E. (Primary, Alternative, Contingency, Emergency) redundancy framework is a great planning tool and a sound mental practice that can help build your resilience. Unlike Premeditatio Malorum, the idea isn't mainly to build the strength that you will survive or succeed, no matter what happens, but to rationally plan the practical way to do so.
Primary: The "Primary" plan is the initial or preferred course of action. It's the main strategy or approach chosen to achieve a goal or objective. This is the plan you intend to follow under normal circumstances.
Alternative: The "Alternative" plan, sometimes called "Plan B," is a secondary option you have prepared if the Primary plan encounters unexpected challenges or fails to achieve the desired outcome. It serves as a backup strategy to ensure progress toward the goal.
Contingency: "Contingency" planning considers a broader range of unexpected events or scenarios. It involves preparing for potential challenges, risks, or disruptions while executing the Primary or Alternative plans. Contingency plans outline how to respond to these specific situations.
Emergency: The "Emergency" plan is the most extreme and reactive level of planning. It's often sub-par or the last resort. It addresses severe and unforeseen crises or disasters. Emergency plans outline immediate actions to protect lives, assets, and operations during a crisis when the other options have failed.
Redundancy
"Two is one, and one is none."
- S.E.A.L. Saying
Redundancy refers to having multiple backup plans or resources to ensure safety and survival. The redundancy principle is integral to the P.A.C.E. framework, emphasising the need for a well-structured approach to preparedness. However, despite the SEAL saying, redundancy is not just having an identical spare replacement -
"Carry redundant capability, not redundant gear"
Graywolf Survival
If your primary way of lighting a fire is a box of matches, and so is your backup, and you get soaked so the first box doesn't work, neither will the second.
Applying the P.A.C.E. Framework.
Combining Premeditatio Malorum with PACE
Returning to our job interview example, you can see how PACE could be used while thinking of the scenarios.
Worry - What if I don't get the job?
Primary - My Primary backup is to stay in my current role.
Alternative - I can keep applying for other jobs
Contingency - I can take a demotion to find a new job
Emergency - I can rely on savings and social welfare until I get a job
If I don't get the job, I still have several options, and I will be OK
Worry - What if my Presentation goes missing?
Primary - My Primary plan is the presentation on a USB stick
Alternative - I have emailed it to them and myself and have it on the phone
Contingency - I have printed out three copies of the slides
Emergency - I can present with a whiteboard or nothing
If I don't get the job, I still have several options, and I will be OK
Negative Visualisation in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (C.B.T.)
PACE clearly has practical applications, and like many Stoic practices, Premeditatio Malorum has been shown by Modern Psychotherapy to have tangible benefits.
Where Stoicism Meets Modern Psychotherapy
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (C.B.T.) often incorporates a technique similar to premeditatio malorum: negative visualisation, and de-catastrophising which has proven to be effective.
Modern psychology supports the ancient Stoic practice of negative visualisation. By mentally rehearsing challenging scenarios, individuals can reduce the intensity of their emotional responses when facing similar situations. This, in turn, leads to decreased levels of anxiety and stress. Moreover, negative visualisation helps individuals develop practical strategies for dealing with potential challenges, enhancing their problem-solving and coping skills.
One significant outcome of these practices is improved emotional regulation. Individuals can better regulate their emotions and become more resilient by cultivating a balanced perspective towards life's adversities. Additionally, contemplating potential difficulties through negative visualisation prepares individuals for real-life challenges, reducing the impact of negative events when they occur. This practice promotes cognitive flexibility, enabling individuals to adapt their thoughts and behaviours more effectively in adversity.
When incorporated into the context of C.B.T., negative visualisation empowers individuals by giving them a sense of control over their emotional responses. It shifts the focus from avoidance to proactive engagement with challenges, aligning with Stoic principles of preparedness and resilience.
In C.B.T., negative visualisation is used for cognitive restructuring. It involves identifying and challenging fears and anxieties by contemplating potential adverse outcomes in a controlled and rational manner. The process typically involves guiding individuals to envision challenging or distressing scenarios. The therapist then works with the individual to develop rational responses and coping strategies. This is not about dwelling on the negative but about reducing the power of fears and anxieties.
Back to the Future
This article has explored the concepts of Premeditatio Malorum, the PACE framework for preparedness, and negative visualisation in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (C.B.T.), highlighting how they all contribute to building resilience.
Preppers worry about the future and prepare for the worst - Stoics don't worry about the future because they are mentally prepared.
Both these practices share the common goal of enhancing resilience.
The enduring relevance of Stoic practices in contemporary mental health treatment is evident through the integration of negative visualisation within C.B.T. This approach upholds Stoic philosophy and offers tangible benefits in managing anxiety, stress, and emotional regulation. Combining ancient wisdom with modern therapeutic techniques, C.B.T. provides a comprehensive approach to mental well-being and resilience.
Furthermore, the P.A.C.E. framework offers a structured and practical approach to preparedness applicable across various scenarios. It emphasises that readiness is not about extreme measures but about being ready and adaptable, leveraging knowledge, habits, and simple actions to ensure safety and survival. By applying the P.A.C.E. framework, individuals can efficiently navigate daily inconveniences and unforeseen disasters, embodying the essence of true preparedness.
Combining Stoic practices, C.B.T., and the P.A.C.E. framework provides a holistic approach to building resilience and preparedness. These techniques, rooted in ancient wisdom and modern psychology, can equip us with the tools to face life's challenges with confidence and resilience, ultimately leading to greater mental well-being and a more secure future.
At the very least, if you end up in that enclosed bunker with a group eating pickled eggs, you'll have considered a gas mask, a replacement filter, and an escape plan…
Rehearse them in your mind: exile, torture, war, shipwreck. All the terms of our human lot should be before our eyes.
Seneca
References
Daily Stoic. (n.d.). Premeditatio Malorum. Retrieved from Daily Stoic
Happier Human. (n.d.). Premeditatio Malorum: How to Apply This Stoic Skill to Your Life. Retrieved from Happier Human
https://graywolfsurvival.com/208978/the-two-is-one-and-one-is-none-fallacy/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy's_law
https://www.therapistaid.com/therapy-guide/cognitive-restructuring