Warning: Now Iranian Revolutionary Guards Target Scotland
Russian Cyber disinformation is well known - Now academic research reveals an extended Iranian state-sponsored disinformation campaign attacking UK democracy.
By some measures, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were tweeting more content, more often, about Scottish Politics than the SNP and Scottish Government combined.
The analysis, published by disinformation analysts Darren Linvill and Patrick Warren at Clemson University, revealed a network of over 80 accounts masquerading as pro-independence Scots. The accounts, traced to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, have produced over a quarter of a million propaganda posts, over one million reports, and 3.2 million ‘likes’ - accounting for around 4% of X traffic surrounding Scottish independence.
The Information warfare experts say that the campaign's tactics and strategy mimic Russian interference, seeking to polarise Western societies and erode trust in democracy.
Sophisticated Disinformation Campaign
According to the Clemson University Media Forensics Hub research, Iran has been orchestrating this digital influence campaign on X (formerly Twitter) since at least 2021. The accounts purport to be based in the UK, and many are in Scotland. 90% of the accounts are young, attractive women, with profile photos either stolen from real people or generated by artificial intelligence.
The content, often in the form of memes and images, exploits existing narratives and disinformation. Memes, hashtags and content is produced and promoted, calling Scottish people who don’t support independence “Traitors” and the claim, at odds with Scottish Goverment’s own analysis, that Scotland subsidises England, and does not benefit from the union.
The accounts have also directly promoted support for politicians such as Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond and Humza Yousaf. Amplifying pro-independence sentiment through retweets, hashtags, and viral content.
The academics linked the accounts to Iran by identifying links to known IRGC organisations, classifying narrative laundering patterns - accounts publishing the same disinformation simultaneously, links to false news sites, and specific patterns of language use.
The Russian Playbook: 2016 US Election
Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election set a precedent for how disinformation could be used to disrupt Western democracies. The Internet Research Agency (IRA), a Russian government-backed troll farm, created thousands of fake accounts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram to polarise the American electorate. They posed as both Black Lives Matter activists and right-wing militias, playing both sides against each other. Their aim, according to the Mueller Report, was to destabilise the election and weaken the US’s global standing.
The Russians knew that exploiting societal divisions was more effective than creating them. By amplifying existing tensions, they manipulated the discourse around the election, sowing doubt about the legitimacy of democratic processes and fostering widespread mistrust. That seed of distrust in democracy directly fed the narrative that led to the attempted
Similarly, Iran's campaign around Scottish independence follows this model. They focus on real issues—such as Brexit, economic disparity, and cultural identity—but push them to the extremes to destabilize the UK.
Shared Tactics: Exploiting Weaknesses in Western Democracies
Both Iran and Russia’s disinformation campaigns share two key strategies.
Exploit Algorithmic Bias
Platforms like X, Facebook, and Instagram are designed to prioritise content that generates engagement. Controversial and emotionally charged posts naturally gain more traction, making it easy for foreign actors to inject disinformation into public discourse. Iran’s and Russia’s troll accounts are designed to inflame existing frustrations, particularly among marginalized groups or political fringes, creating a snowball effect of divisive dialogue.
Narrative laundering
This is where false or misleading information is repeatedly shared until it gains the veneer of credibility. In Iran's case, this has included fabricating stories about Scottish independence, falsely framing the UK as oppressors of Scottish freedom. In Russia’s case, the tactic was used to spread conspiracy theories about Hillary Clinton and voter fraud, manipulating voters’ perception of the electoral process (Kim et al., 2018).
Iran’s Persistent Courtship of Scottish Nationalism
While this research and study is new, there is an established history of Iran cultivating relationships with Scottish Nationalists, and previous warnings of Iranian disinformation campaigns.
In 2016 Alex Salmond embarked on a contentious diplomatic visit to Iran, accompanied by a Scottish delegation, including SNP MP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. Paid for by the Iranian government, the trip raised eyebrows, not least because freedom of information requests later revealed Salmond’s office would not give full details to the foreign office.
During the visit, in comments revealed by a freedom of information request, Iran’s foreign affairs minister, Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif Khonsari, told Mr. Salmond that Iran ‘recognises Scotland as separate to the rest of the United Kingdom”.
The following year, in 2017 Facebook shut down over 600 pages which they identified as an Iranian disinformation network. The pages, masquerading as grassroots organisations or independent media, had amplified pro-independence narratives, echoing the SNP’s rhetoric.
In both 2017 and 2018 Nicola Sturgeon, then SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister, shared a stage with Dr Mohammad Shomali, a hardline cleric representing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, at an event hosted by the Ahl al-Bait Society in Scotland.
The Ahl al-Bait Society in Scotland is headquartered in a building used by the Iranian Embassy to provide consular services in Glasgow. Ahl al-Bait received £200,000 in grants from the Scottish Government, and has consistently denied being an Iranian government propaganda front organisation.
Nicola Sturgeon had planned to make a Keynote speech at the same event in 2019, but cancelled following criticism in the press of Shomali’s endorsement of oppressive policies, homophobia and justifications for Iranian state violence. Instead, Sturgeon sent Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf to represent her.
In 2021 the UK-based Henry Jackson Society, through its Centre for the Response to Radicalisation and Terrorism, released a report, “Iranian Influence Netowrks in the United Kingdom” revealing for the first time the full extent of Iran’s propaganda targeting Scottish politics.
How Concerned Should We Be ?
Russian online interference in western discourse is much better recognised - it has been identified in the Scottish referendum, Brexit and US elections. However, we must not underestimate the threat from Iran. As early as 2014 The US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute advised that since 2011, Iran had invested $1 billion in cyber technology and recruited more than 120,000 staff. The authors of the latest research say this is a step-change in Iranian disinformation and isn’t limited to Scottish Independence or X.
“In the course of our analysis, the Media Forensics Hub identified accounts on Instagram and TikTok that we believe to be part of the same campaign… Relative to past campaigns attributed to Iran, this campaign’s sophistication and reach should be concerning.”
The Scottish Politician with the closest apparent links to the States sponsoring disinformation is disgraced former First Minister Alex Salmond.
In an interview for GQ magazine, Salmond told Alistair Campell that he ‘ Admired’ Vladimir Putin. He then went on to host a controversial talk show on RT (Formerly Russia Today), the Russian state-controlled disinformation channel. Starting in November 2017, the show was produced by his company Slàinte Media, which Mr. Salmond jointly runs with former SNP MP Tasmina Ahmed—Sheikh. As condemnation grew following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they announced the “suspension” of the talk show until peace is re-established.
It can be hoped that the current Scottish Government, lead by John Swinney, is more circumspect in the support they court. It was reported by the Herald in 2016 that he turned down an approach from Alex Salmond to discuss the Iranian trip.
Dr. Paul Stott, who holds MSc in Terrorism Studies (Distinction) from the University of East London, and a PhD from the University of East Anglia for the research “British Jihadism: The Detail and the Denial” gives such politicians some benefit of the doubt, writing in 2021:
“Iran cynically takes advantage of politicians who, not without reason, see events such as interfaith conferences or trade delegations as a necessary part of their job, without grasping that Tehran has other motives when promoting such initiatives.”
Dr. Paul Stott
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said
“Our democratic processes and our public discourse is now part of the frontline in a hidden war. Hostile state actors want to destabalise the cohesion of our communities and our faith in those who govern us. Misinformation and online deception are now their weapons of choice and represent a real threat to democratic values and democracy itself.”
Alex Cole-Hamilton
Whether from Russia, Iran or other states - the strategic aims of the disinformation remain the same. Weaken Western liberal democracies by dividing our societies.
We must urgently have a parliamentary investigation into state-sponsored disinformation and hold social media platforms to a higher standard of tackling state-sponsored disinformation.
Democracy has already faltered in the US. The EU is now, perhaps, the only liberal body in the world that has the power to regulate social media - and are warning us that it is no longer possible to have free and fair elections, while we don’t know what social networks are hiding and promoting. As Oligarchs like Musk and Zuckerberg rally behind Fascism, We need to be aware, not only of bad actors on platforms: but how they interact with the platforms themselves.
Rod McMillan - More Wretch Than Sage