The Dictator's Dilemma

Democrats are still playing by the rules; Trump’s marked the cards, loaded the dice and paid off the dealers. 'The Dictator's Handbook uses Game Theory to explain how, and why, he's changed the game.

Mar 07, 2025

"If you think you've won, you never saw me change the game that we have been playing."
— Chris Cornell, You Know My Name

The Dictator's Handbook by political theorists Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith explains almost everything you need to know about Trump's Second Term strategy.

"If you're running a dictatorship, you don't really have to worry about the welfare or the property rights of the ordinary citizen. Only the people who keep you in power, a very small group, matter."
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Published in 2011, The Dictator's Handbook is a sharp-edged analysis of political power through game theory. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith are academics, and there was a danger that game theory could be dry, statistical and technical, but here they have made it accessible, understandable, and clear. At its heart lies their ‘selectorate theory’:

"Governments do not differ in kind, but only in the number of essential supporters, or backs that need scratching."
The Dictators Handbook

The Dictator's Handbook breaks power down to its brutal essentials:

Democracies need to keep millions of voters happy.
Dictatorships only need to keep a handful of elites happy.
The smaller the group that matters, the easier it is to stay in power.

The authors show how politicians gain and consolidate power through the book and with multiple well-referenced historical examples. It boils down to how many people they need to keep happy. The larger percentage of the population required, the more democratic. The smaller the cabal of Oligarchs, Generals or Tribal leaders - the more Authoritarian the regime.

And that explains exactly what we see. Trump has gained power as a populist demagogue but is now consolidating power away from his mass MAGA support into a much smaller 'winning coalition' of elite kingmakers. That is a fundamental shift in the nature of power and opportunities for accountability compared to his first term.

Profiteering Oligarchs manage his industrial-media complex, loyal federal appointees cripple agencies that would investigate him and suppress voters while a patronised supreme legislature say it's legal.

He does still maintain a large enough selectorate of Evangelical and Republican sycophants so that any appointees who displease him know they can be quickly replaced if they don't stay loyal. Loyalty is important, but he only values it in one direction. This cabal is rigging the system to remain in power.

Donald Trump has never played fair. In his second term, he's not wasting time trying to deliver on his election promises to his voters, not on lowering egg prices, not on ending the Ukraine War in 24 hours. He's changing the system, so he doesn't have to. The rules of the American game are being rewritten.

While Democrats are still playing by the rules, Trump has marked the cards, loaded the dice and paid off the dealers. It’s like they are playing Chess Boxing, and no-one told the Democrats that the boxing has started.

The crux of their theory, backed by example, is that politicians want to stay in power and generally act rationally, so make decisions based on keeping people happy. In free democracies, that means they must deliver 'public goods' to the benefit of - if not a majority - then a plurality. Democracy, then, is Utilitarian, the greatest good to the greatest number.

An authoritarian leader has the same aim - he just doesn't need such widespread support, just a small group of powerful backers who can keep him in office and are easier to keep happy than the populace.

"Ruling is about staying in power, not good governance."
The Dictators Handbook

What Trump is doing—gutting government institutions, stacking agencies with loyalists, and forging alliances with billionaires who control media, tech, and finance, is building this smaller 'winning coalition' of oligarchs and loyalists.

Meanwhile, the voters who put him back in power—blue-collar workers, republican women, veterans, and Latinos—are discovering they were never part of his endgame. Their betrayal is swift, but the consequences will last far longer.

Trump's Second Term: From Winning Votes to Keeping Power

Winning an election is one game. Keeping power is another. The Dictator's Handbook teaches us that the game starts after victory. Donald Trump's 2024 campaign was a masterclass in coalition-building and public relations. He promised salvation to blue-collar workers, lower prices to shoppers, validation to racists, salvation to evangelicals, and economic prosperity to wealthy elites. He probably convinced enough voters to return him to power. He possibly didn't need the votes if rumours of skulduggery and voter suppression hold water.

Now, just months into his second term, it's clear that many of those voters were only pawns on the board—useful until they weren't, then sacrificed for the king's benefit.

Because Trump no longer needs broad public support. Sure, he likes being popular, but then he will believe he's popular even when everyone hates him. He's shifting to a new strategy where he only has to please a handful of key power players to maintain control. And the rest? Well, they can deal with the consequences.

He'll change what rules he likes, and when there is pushback on the rules he isn't allowed to change, he'll play like they have changed because Trump is a cheater. That's fundamental to understanding who he is.

The Cheater's Game: Even When the Rules Work, Trump Cheats

Trump portrays himself as an elite golf player with an enviable handicap. However, according to multiple accounts, Trump regularly cheats. From moving his ball to better positions to refusing to count extra strokes, he does it blatantly and feels he deserves to get away with it. Golf champion Rick Reilly's book Commander in Cheat details the sheer shamelessness with which Trump disregards the rules of a game that relies on honour and self-enforcement.

According to multiple reports from playing partners, caddies, and club members, Trump has been caught in cheats ranging from the minor - Kicking his ball out of the rough when no one is looking, to the outrageous - Claiming victories in tournaments he never actually played in!

Commander in Cheat by Rick Reilly · OverDrive: Free ebooks, audiobooks ...

The parallels to his political career are apparent. Trump cheats not just because he has to, but because he believes rules are for other people. In Golf, In Business, In Politics, Trump's instinct is always to take shortcuts, bend the truth, and claim loudly he's won even when he didn't. He hasn't yet encouraged his supporters to storm St. Andrew's, claiming he won the Open… but it wouldn't be out of character.

And this is where it stops being funny. Trump's golf course antics are harmless compared to the way he manipulates the rulebook of democracy itself. Now, in his second term, that instinct is his governing strategy. When he finds himself constrained by laws, traditions, proprietary or institutions, his response isn't to work within them but to break them outright.

Even if his shameful conservative-stuffed Supreme Court hadn't given him effective immunity, he'd act like it had. The same instinct that has him 'finding' lost golf balls in perfect positions now drives his executive orders, judicial manipulations, and voter suppression efforts.

To Trump - it’s a game - no matter how high the stakes are for others.

“You don’t have the cards”
Trump to Zelenskyy

The MAGA Coalition: Who Put Trump Back in Power?

"the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition" -
Trump Victory Speech

Blue-Collar Workers: The Forgotten Americans, Remembered Again

Trump's appeal to white working-class voters without college degrees was undeniable. He resurrected the old promises: bringing back manufacturing, slashing global trade deals, and punishing companies that outsourced jobs. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio, his rallies overflowed with workers who felt left behind—once again believing that Trump was their champion.

Latino Voters: The Unexpected Right-Ward Shift

Trump's 2024 campaign saw a 14% increase in Latino support, particularly among young Latino men. Many were drawn to his tough-on-crime stance, economic promises, and warnings about "socialism." This shift was widely discussed as a sign of the Democratic Party losing its hold on Latino voters.

Christian Evangelicals: The Unwavering Faithful

Despite personal scandals and decades of behaviour that should horrify a church deacon, Trump secured overwhelming support from White evangelical Christians. Why? Because in return for their support, he delivered on their right-wing conservative priorities—appointing anti-abortion judges, dismantling LGBTQ+ protections, and instituting Project 2025.

Billionaire Backers: The Kingmakers

While branding himself as the voice of the 'everyday forgotten man', Trump never lost the trust of the ultra-wealthy. His promises of tax cuts, deregulation, and hostility toward environmental protections have kept billionaires close. They didn't need the red hats or the rallies. They just needed a president who kept their bottom line safe.

This is where The Dictator's Handbook becomes particularly relevant. The book argues that authoritarian leaders reduce the number of essential supporters they must keep happy—and billionaires are a much smaller, more manageable group to appease than millions of working-class voters. With wealth flowing upwards and corporate power increasing, Trump's financial backers have little incentive to oppose him.

However, what Trump promised and what he has delivered are two entirely different things. His second term has seen an increase in automation-friendly policies that allow corporations to replace workers with AI-driven solutions. While continuing to favour billionaires, his economic policies have slowed growth in manufacturing jobs. Instead, those hoping for revitalisation watch their industries shrink even further while Trump's administration funnels tax breaks toward corporate shareholders instead of workers.

Meanwhile, the much-touted tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU meant to protect American industry have already resulted in higher consumer prices and increased economic strain on the communities that supported him. Once the heart of Trump's working-class resurgence, the Rust Belt is now expecting another round of economic contraction.

The Backlash: When the Deal Goes Sour

Winning a second term freed Trump from the need to be popular.

That would be the case even if he didn't want to pursue a third term - something openly being promoted. He now pursues power consolidation without needing to keep his voters happy. And boy, are his voters finding that out.

White Women finding out they are DEI Hires

One of Trump's first acts was dismantling Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs across the government and private sector. Many White women who had voted for him failed to realise that they had been some of the biggest beneficiaries of DEI initiatives. Now, corporate layoffs and hiring freezes hit them first. The irony? They'd helped cheer on their own professional demise.

Latino Trump Voters: The Betrayal of the Century

Trump's second-term immigration policies go beyond rhetoric. Deportations will surge, and many Latinos who had backed him in 2024 find their communities caught in the dragnet. It turns out that Trump, a Latino Trump supporter, and a Latino illegal immigrant look the same. However, Trump's policies post-election have proven to be a stunning betrayal. His deportation policies are targeting not just undocumented immigrants but also longtime residents with minor infractions. The rhetoric about "keeping America safe" has translated into widespread ICE crackdowns that are now affecting Latino communities—regardless of political alignment. Sometimes even seeing people victimised irrespective of citizenship.

It turns out that to Trump, a Latino citizen Trump supporter, and a Latino illegal immigrant look exactly the same.

The shift from campaign promises to governance has shown these voters exactly where they stand in Trump's priorities.

Veterans for Trump: Left Behind Once Again

Trump had promised to fix the VA, increase benefits, and honour veterans. Instead, his administration is cutting key programs, slashing the budget and firing 80,000 employees, making care harder to access. The very people who saw him as their champion find themselves fighting bureaucracies instead of getting the help they were promised.

Some anti-Trump audiences have celebrated these inevitable betrayals with schadenfreude - and I understand that completely. People fucked around, and they found out - they never expected the face-eating-leopard party would eat their faces. Some optimistic opposition is also excited that this will surely be the start of Trump's downfall - that the backlash will hit Republicans in Congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Yes, Republicans are already being booed in their own town halls so often they are simply stopping holding them. But to think this overly worries Trump is a misunderstanding. This is to presume the rules apply when really your ball is about to be kicked into the rough while Trump takes a mulligan.

The Dictator's Handbook: Trump's Shift Toward Authoritarianism

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith's insightful book pulls back the curtain to reveal the pragmatic pursuit of power. They use game theory to give an unvarnished perspective on the mechanics of political leadership, arguing that the primary objective of leaders—be they autocrats or democrats—is to maintain their grip on power, and that while in democracy that means Utilitarianism to benefit at least a plurality, in autocratic systems the 'coalition' that needs to be won over is much smaller.

The lesson of The Dictator's Handbook is that leaders don't govern for the people; they govern for the people they need. And in authoritarian systems, that number shrinks. Trump is no longer trying to please a broad coalition. Instead, he's securing power by reducing the number of people he needs to keep happy. And the book outlines exactly the steps we can expect, and are already seeing.

Strategic Purge: Gutting the Government & Installing Loyalists

"Once the old leader is gone, it is essential to seize the instruments of power, such as the treasury, as quickly as possible."
The Dictator's Handbook

One of Trump's first significant actions in his second term was reviving Schedule F, a policy designed to strip thousands of career civil servants of their protections and replace them with political appointees. This shift ensures that only the most loyal officials remain, creating a government that serves him personally rather than the nation. The result? Agencies that once acted independently are now stacked with individuals selected for obedience rather than competence.

Strengthening Executive Power: A Nation of Decrees

Authoritarian leaders don't rely on legislatures if they don't have to. Trump has increasingly used executive orders to bypass Congress, cementing power through unilateral action. His orders have included sweeping changes to immigration policy, regulatory rollbacks benefiting corporations, and increased authority over federal law enforcement. He has also clarified his desire to stay in office beyond two terms. While still officially denying any intention of breaking the constitutional limit, his rhetoric has shifted from vague jokes to more pointed statements about why he "deserves more time" in power.

"It will be the greatest honor of my life to serve not once but twice – or three or four times." - Donald J Trump

His allies have floated legal arguments suggesting the two-term rule could be "reinterpreted," laying the groundwork for an eventual constitutional crisis. His decree ending Birthright citizenship was a blatant first attempt at rewriting the constitution.

Strategic Alliances: Oligarchical Corporate-Media Complex

Unlike his working-class voters, Trump's billionaire allies have gained. New tax loopholes ensure their wealth grows unchecked. Deregulation means environmental restrictions are gutted, allowing oil and tech moguls to expand profits.

The billionaires who bankrolled him don't care about the culture wars—they just need an administration that guarantees their interests are secure. Saying that - on paper, the current economic chaos may have wiped some paper value - but this is a firesale, disaster capitalism. You only lose money if you don't know the market will crash in advance. They have plenty of liquidity and leverage to short the market before his tariffs collapse it, buy things up cheaply when he does, and even pile into the latest meme coin before he pumps it and there's a rug-pull.

Trump's consolidation strategy is his alignment with key corporate power players, allowing him to bypass traditional political infrastructure by controlling the flow of information, technology, and commerce. These are the actual constituents he needs, not the masses.

Elon Musk: Once positioning himself as politically neutral, Musk has become a prominent Trump ally, His control over X (formerly Twitter) has turned the platform into a haven for right-wing misinformation. Musk funded Trump's election campaign to the tune of $265m and has seen his own wealth rise by billions. He has been a vocal proponent of expanding executive power while leading ( but not being officially part of ) DOGE - primarily dismantling and weakening the federal government, particularly the parts of the federal government that had powers to investigate and regulate Musk's business interests and give his companies billions of US taxpayers money. Musk's power is highly undemocratic, as can be seen when he's asked Benn's Five Questions.
Mark Zuckerberg: The abrupt termination of Meta's fact-checking programs has allowed misinformation to spread unchecked, aligning Meta more closely with the Fascist administration's propaganda efforts. Trump's meetings with Zuckerberg suggest further alignment in social media control. Zuckerberg has shown suitable fealty by paying Trump millions in compensation for being truthful about him on Facebook about things like the January 6th Insurrection.
Sundar Pichai: The Google CEO attended Trump's inauguration, symbolically done behind closed doors, away from the voters, with restricted and elite access. Trump had long complained that Google was biased against him and promised to sue them when he returned to power. However, Google donated $1m to Trump's 2025 election fund, which has fallen into line with his policies - scrapping Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, dropping the ban on using artificial intelligence to develop weapons.
Jeff Bezos: Once an opponent of Trump, Bezos has shifted tactics, focusing on securing favourable policies for Amazon rather than engaging in opposition. The shift in editorial direction at The Washington Post has seen a noticeable reduction in overtly critical coverage, making it clear that Bezos is backing anti-worker authoritarian rule. Amazon Prime has also come under scrutiny in its choice or suppression of the independent and political documentaries it streams.

By securing the loyalty of these Billionaire oligarchs, Trump gains influence in a significant portion of the US media. Together, Google, Meta, and X form a large portion of where Americans get their news. According to Pew Research, 86% of US adults get their news from smartphones or tablets. 12% prefer to get their news from search engines, of which Google is the market leader. 18% from social media, where Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram are major players to Trump's demographic. He also gains potentially deeper government access to their widespread surveillance. This ensures that public opposition is filtered, diluted, manipulated and, in some cases, outright suppressed.

This follows the playbook outlined in The Dictator's Handbook - a leader who controls wealth, media, and technological infrastructure is a leader who doesn't need to answer to voters. If they can choose who votes, and who can speak to the voters, they don’t even need to technically rig the elections.

Eroding Democratic Processes: Election Manipulation & Voter Suppression

"There's nothing better than a rigged election, so long as you're the one rigging it."
The Dictators Handbook

While false claims of voter fraud marked Trump's first presidency, his second term has been defined by genuine efforts to undermine election integrity. His administration has enacted aggressive voter ID laws, mass voter purges, and restrictions on mail-in ballots, disproportionately affecting demographics that traditionally vote against him.

More troubling are the direct threats to state-level election officials, many of whom have faced harassment and legal action for refusing to alter election results. Several key swing states have seen Trump-loyal secretaries of state take office, ensuring that election oversight is now in the hands of individuals who have publicly stated they would overturn unfavourable results.

This transition follows the Handbook's principle that a leader must control the mechanisms of their retention—not just the people who vote, but those who count the votes.

We Don't Need No Education

"Dictators pay to have well-educated third-graders - but do not carry that quality of education forward to higher learning" -
The Dictators Handbook

Trump's Department of Education purge is not just about keeping Christian Nationalists happy with control of the curriculum; it is - like Orwell's NEWSPEAK, an attack on the ability to think critically. His first administration slashed federal funding, cut school voucher programs, and gutted protections for marginalised students. But his second-term strategy is even more extreme.

Under Project 2025, his administration is working to abolish the Department of Education entirely, cutting federal oversight on curriculum, rolling back civil rights protections, and eliminating national education standards. The goal? Privatise education, weaken teachers' unions and let Republican-led states rewrite history to fit their ideological agenda. With Trump's hand-picked loyalists in charge, schools will be stripped of DEI programs, climate science, and comprehensive sex education while Christian nationalist rhetoric fills the void.

There is a sweet spot in authoritarian education. The people must be educated enough to be receptive to propaganda and trainable enough to work to pay taxes but not so educated that they question authority or can organise.

So… What Do We Do Now?

"We want everybody to act like adults, quit playing games, realise that it's not just my way or the highway. "
Barack Obama

President Obama appealed to reason—an appeal for people to play by the rules. If Trump plays by The Dictator's Handbook, his opponents must respond accordingly. The democratic window for action is closing. Dems need to stop going quietly. Democracy is being stolen. In other countries, parliamentarians throw chairs and smoke bombs and physically resist authoritarianism.

It's like Trump and the Democrats are playing chess boxing, except nobody's told the Democrats the boxing bit has started.

Voter mobilisation is critical. A large, active, informed electorate makes it harder for Trump to manipulate results.
State legislatures matter. The real battle for election integrity is now happening in state governments.
Stop assuming institutions will save you. Courts and Congress won't act unless public pressure demands it, and while even Trump-appointed judges baulk at his attempt to have the executive overrule the legislative, that will weaken over time if it's allowed to.
Protest and Boycott. Hit them where it hurts - right in the stock price. Protests in every state are not getting the media coverage they deserve, but civil protest is critical to break through the psychological hold authoritarian regimes.

For Opposition Politicians & Responsible Republicans

Congress must reinforce checks on executive power before it's too late.
Republican leaders must break ranks. The only way to stop Trump is if some within his own party start resisting him. They are already running scared of their own town halls. If you can't reach his small winning coalition, chip away at his selectorate.

For International Allies (NATO, UK, EU, Ukraine)

NATO must prepare for instability. A second Trump presidency weakens US commitment to NATO. It's hard to imagine Trump - who wants to absorb NATO member Canada, and buy NATO member Greenland, standing up to Putin should Russia invade, for example, Latvia. The planned humiliation of Zelenskyy and capitulation to Putin is almost certainly a step to deliberate NATO collapse.
The Other Four Eyes Must Regroup. The Five Eyes alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) must prepare for a more adversarial intelligence landscape under Trump's second term. With U.S. intelligence agencies increasingly politicised and directed to serve Russian interests rather than national security, Five Eyes partners must enhance independent intelligence operations and limit data-sharing arrangements that could compromise sources or expose dissidents. In particular, the UK, Canada, and Australia should strengthen cyber-defence coordination to counteract the growing weaponisation of AI-driven surveillance tools that are now being co-developed by US tech companies. Further, allied nations must diversify intelligence partnerships beyond the US, ensuring that critical security decisions are not dictated by an administration that has shown unprecedented hostility toward democratic norms and alliances. Traditionally, the partners have relied on the NSA and CIA for the backbone of services, while they have specialised elsewhere. This means we have not developed agents and assets in areas where we now, sadly, cannot rely on the USA.
Ukraine: Ukraine must brace for further betrayal. Trump's foreign policy signals a shift behind Russia. Ukraine must maintain the strength of its resolve and excellent partnerships outside the US while coming back to the table to play to Trump's ego and try to mitigate the betrayal while maintaining territorial integrity - even at the cost of significant mineral wealth.
EU Europe must strengthen economic and military independence. Relying on the US as a democratic partner is now a risky assumption. But military independence could take 18-24 months. EU needs to stall Russia in Ukraine for at least that time, and try to use the profit motive to keep the US selling military systems to the EU to provide to Ukraine. Voters in EU countries must resist far-right and populist movements. Trump is allied with Putin, and Putin's foreign policy is Russian expansion by weakening NATO and the EU. Trump will stay in power with his coalition of Oligarchs - and the EU is now the only liberal democratic body with the power to regulate behemoths like Meta, Google and Twitter. Expect to see the Oligarchs and Trump support anti-EU populists like Reform.
United Nations: The UN Permanent Security Council now has an authoritarian majority. It's more important than ever that France and the UK are closely allied. Algeria, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, South Korea, and Guyana are elected out this year - who replaces them will be critical. The other five who are in until 2026, including Denmark and Panama are, already at odds with Trump.

Trump's second term isn't about governing but entrenching power. When first published in 2011, the USA was democratic. That might need to be revised in future editions.

Trump isn't just playing to win—he's playing to end the game itself. If Democrats and the opposition don't wake up now, American democracy won't survive his second term.