It's Later Than You Think: Why 2040 won't be like 2012

I've lived through at least two predicted apocalypses - Y2K's Millennium Bug and 2012, when the Mayan calendar ended. But a 1972 model shows why 2040 won't be the same.

We are teetering on the brink of collapse, not due to a mythical prophecy or a simple and limited technological glitch, but because of the natural and escalating pressures of population growth, industrialisation, and resource depletion.

This is not the plot of a dystopian novel; This is happening. Now.

It is a scenario that was outlined in the 1972 report, "Limits to Growth," commissioned by the Club of Rome, and their predictions are reflected in reality. We are right on track for collapse. This is not a drill.

Fear and Loathing in Rome

In 1972, a group of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) authored a significant report. "The Limits to Growth" This report made a bold prediction: if the world continued on its path of unchecked economic and population growth, it would face a potential collapse. The reason behind this dire prediction was simple yet profound – our planet has limited resources, and the relentless pursuit of growth was pushing these limits.

The report wasn't just focused on a single region; it took a comprehensive look at the entire planet. Its findings and predictions weren't short-term either; they extended well into the 21st century, making it a topic of discussion and concern for decades. This report aimed to delve into what happens when human growth and development exceed the natural limits of our world.

The MIT team used a sophisticated computer model called World3 to achieve this. This model was designed to simulate how various factors – such as the size of the human population, industrial growth rate, how we use resources, and the impact on the environment – interact. By doing so, they could project possible future scenarios based on the trends observed in these areas. This approach provided a glimpse into the most likely futures of our planet, highlighting the urgent need for change in how we view and manage growth and resources.

The world didn't heed the warning. We didn't make those changes. 

Five Variables to Rule Them All

The "Limits to Growth" report accurately predicted the trajectory of our global civilisation towards collapse by the early 2040s due to the interrelated pressures of population growth, food production challenges, industrialisation effects, environmental pollution, and non-renewable resource depletion: the dotted lines on this graph show their 1972 predictions - the solid lines show what actually happened. 

This graph should terrify you. 

Population Growth

I've covered this in more detail in Malthusian Maths. One of the main reasons we're using up our planet's resources so quickly is because more and more people live on Earth. By 2100, we could have between 10 and 12 billion people worldwide. That's a lot more than we have now!

When there are more people, they need more things like food, water, and places to live. This means we use up resources faster than before. It's not just about having enough stuff for everyone; it also leads to other problems. For example, trying to produce more food for all these people can lead to insufficient food in some places and harm the environment.

This increase in the number of people and the problems it causes, like using up resources and damaging the environment, is closely linked to the next big issue we must consider: how we produce our food.

Food Production

As the world's population keeps growing, we face a huge challenge: we need to produce much more food. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in 2009 that we need to increase food production by 70% by the year 2050 to feed everyone. But this isn't just about planting more crops or raising more animals for food. It's getting harder to grow food because of several significant problems.

Firstly, climate change is shaking things up. It's changing the weather and making it harder to grow crops in places that used to be perfect for farming. Some areas are getting too hot or dry; in other places, it rains too much or at the wrong times. Farmers must adapt quickly or find new places to grow their crops.

Then there's the issue of topsoil degradation. Topsoil is the top layer of soil used for growing plants. But it's being damaged and lost at an alarming rate because of things like over-farming and not caring for the land properly. This makes it even harder to grow enough food.

Another big problem is how we use artificial fertilisers. These fertilisers help plants grow faster and bigger, but they're made using fossil fuels, contributing to climate change. So, while they help in the short term, they're not a great solution for the long term.

Desertification is another issue. This is when fertile land turns into desert, usually because of drought, climate change, and bad land management. It means even less land is available for farming.

Lastly, we're using up our water tables – the underground freshwater sources. We need this water for drinking and growing crops, but in many places, we're using it faster than it can be replaced. This is a big problem for food production because crops need a lot of water.

All these challenges are linked to industrialisation – how we've developed and grown our industries and economies. Industrialisation has helped us in many ways, but it's also part of the reason we're facing these problems with food production.

Industrialisation

Industrial growth has benefited the economy, helping countries develop, and people have better lives. But there's a downside to it as well – it's not so great for our environment. Selvey and Carey, in their 2013 study, looked at how producing food in Australia impacts the environment. They found that it leaves a significant ecological footprint, which means it uses many natural resources and causes pollution.

A big part of the problem is how industries rely on fossil fuels – like coal, oil, and gas – to run factories, machines, and transport goods. Burning these fuels releases a lot of carbon dioxide, a significant cause of climate change. Climate change then leads to problems like extreme weather, rising sea levels, and changes in where and how we can grow food.

But it's not just about climate change. How we do things in an industry often uses up resources too fast, and we're not always good at replacing them. For example, we might cut down forests for timber or to make space for farms but not plant new trees. Or we use up water faster than it can be naturally replenished. Where we plant trees, we often do a terrible non-native job - artificial monoculture plantings in Canada have exacerbated wildfires to almost unbelievable levels.  

All this industrial activity also leads to a lot of pollution. Factories release harmful chemicals and microplastics into the air, water, and food chain, which is terrible for our health and the health of animals and plants. It's a bit of a cycle – industrial growth can improve our lives in some ways, but it can also harm the environment we depend on. This environmental damage then comes back to affect us, like through climate change and the loss of natural resources.

Environmental Pollution

Pollution has become a major issue, primarily because of how much we've industrialised and how many people there are now. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported in 2021 that a staggering 9 out of 10 people around the globe are breathing in polluted air. This is a clear sign of how widespread the problem has become.

When discussing pollution, we look at dirty air, contaminated water, and land filled with harmful chemicals. This pollution comes from various sources, including factories, cars, and even some farming practices. As industries have grown and more people live in cities, pollution has increased significantly.

The impact of this pollution on our health and quality of life is enormous. Breathing in polluted air can lead to all sorts of health problems, from asthma and respiratory infections to more severe conditions like heart disease and stroke. It's not just a minor issue; it affects almost everyone somehow.

But it's not just about our health. Pollution also harms the environment. It can make soil less fertile, harm wildlife, and pollute rivers and oceans. This means it can be harder to grow food and damage the natural systems we rely on for water and clean air.

This pollution problem is closely linked to another big issue: how we're using up non-renewable resources like oil, gas, and minerals. These resources take millions of years to form, so they're gone for good once they're gone. We're using them up at a high-speed rate, partly to power all the industrial activity that's causing so much pollution. So, we're facing a double challenge: dealing with pollution and finding ways to manage without these resources in the future.

Non-renewable Resource Depletion

How we're using up resources that can't be replaced – like oil, gas, and certain minerals – is becoming a big problem. In 2021, the Global Footprint Network, an organisation that tracks how we use natural resources, found that we're taking more from the Earth than it can give us back. We're using these resources faster than the Earth can replace them, so they're getting scarce.

This isn't just about running out of things. Using resources like this is not sustainable – it can't go on forever. And it's causing all sorts of problems for our economy and the environment. Economically, as these resources get rarer, they become more expensive. This can lead to higher costs for pretty much everything, from the fuel we use to power our cars and homes to the materials used to make all sorts of products.

Environmentally, the impact is huge, too. Extracting and using these resources often leads to pollution and other forms of environmental damage. For example, mining can destroy landscapes and pollute water sources, and burning fossil fuels contributes to air pollution and climate change.

All these issues – the overuse of resources, the economic challenges of scarcity, and the environmental damage caused by extraction and use – are connected. They're all part of a bigger picture that shows how our current way of living has put a lot of pressure on our planet.

The Billionaires are Building their Bunkers.

The "Limits to Growth" report's foresight into the challenges of the 21st century starkly contrasts the unfounded fears of 2012 and the narrowly averted millennium bug crisis. Its predictions, grounded in rigorous analysis and now echoed by contemporary research, paint a picture of a world on the precipice. The interwoven challenges of population growth, food production, industrialisation, pollution, and resource depletion are not just hypothetical scenarios but are unfolding realities.

The Millennium Bug or Y2K problem stemmed from how computers programmed dates. This was well understood. Many older computer systems represented years using only the last two digits, so '1999' was just '99'. The concern was that when the year rolled over to 2000, these systems would read the year '00' as 1900, not 2000, potentially causing widespread errors in everything from financial systems to power grids. The fear was that this could lead to essential services and infrastructure failures. To prevent this potential chaos, a massive global effort was undertaken. Governments and businesses worldwide spent billions updating and testing computer systems to ensure they could correctly interpret 2000. This concerted effort, involving countless hours of work by programmers and IT professionals, successfully averted what could have been a significant disruption at the start of the new millennium. It was primarily driven not just by governments but because there were short-term financial incentives for businesses to do it. 

The 2012 predictions were apocalyptic pseudo-history that reflected the zeitgeist of the climate collapse and an understanding of being in unprecedented times - but there was nothing tangible to 'fix' for 2012. The Mayan apocalypse was a widespread belief that the world would end on December 21, 2012. This prediction was supposedly based on the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, used by the ancient Maya civilisation. According to some interpretations, this calendar ended on that date, leading to various theories about an impending apocalypse. These theories ranged from catastrophic natural disasters to the arrival of a new, transformative spiritual era. 

The idea gained significant traction in popular culture, with numerous books, documentaries, and even a major Hollywood movie exploring the concept. However, scholars and Mayanists clarified that the end of the calendar simply marked the end of a cycle, much like a modern calendar year ending on December 31. There was no evidence in Mayan writings or beliefs to suggest they predicted the world's end. December 21, 2012, came and went without incident.

2040 is nothing like these.

The coming 2040s collapse is like five interactive millennium bugs at once, scientifically valid, known about in advance, but each considerably more complex, with no simple or accepted fixes, and with corporate and political short-term interests in avoiding or denying the reality - much like tobacco companies covered up cancer, and oil companies covered up climate change. 

We are 16 short years away from a seemingly inevitable collapse. 

The billionaires are building their bunkers.

It's later than you think. 

References

• Bardi, U. (1972). Limits to Growth. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.91047-X. 

• Herrington, G. (2020). Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13084. 

• Turner, G., & Alexander, C. (2014). Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse. The Guardian.

• Lal, R. . Sustainable Horticulture and Resource Management. 

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2009). How to Feed the World in 2050. 

• Selvey, L., & Carey, M. (2013). Australia's dietary guidelines and the environmental impact of food “from paddock to plate”. Medical Journal of Australia, 10.5694/mja12.10528. 

• World Health Organization. (2021). Air pollution. 

• Global Footprint Network. (2021). National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts.