Don't Sleep In On Doomsday: The Ultimate Alarm Clock

The Doomsday Clock is about to tick closer to midnight - but by how much, why, and what can we do? I look at the factors and ask three AI systems where they would set it.

Jan 26, 2025

Anyone who has ever joined me on a video call might have noticed the Doomsday Clock in the background—a family heirloom passed down from my great-grandmother. This Clock is noisy when wound, the ticking and marking the time, so instead I keep it aligned to the Doomsday Clock. It's a constant background reminder to myself, and anyone who cares to ask it's meaning. Memento Armageddon.

It's adjusted once a year, and the new time will be announced on Tuesday, January 28th. I predict that this week, we'll be moving it closer to midnight—maybe to as close as 70 seconds.

In this article I outline what the Clock is, what's impacting it - and what different artificial intelligence systems suggest it should be set at.

What is the Doomsday Clock?

"The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet."
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board.

The Doomsday Clock was established in 1947 to symbolise humanity's proximity to catastrophe. Midnight represents the theoretical point of no return—global annihilation through nuclear war, climate change, or other existential risks. The current setting, 90 seconds to midnight, is the closest it has ever been.

Nine Minutes to Midnight

The Clock was conceived in the shadow of the Manhattan Project, initially to reflect the threat of nuclear conflict during the early Cold War. Over the years, its scope has expanded to include climate change, biological threats, artificial intelligence, and other burgeoning dangers. When I was born, in 1979, the Clock was at 9 minutes to midnight, where it had been since India got the bomb in 1974. However, within a year, it went to the first 7 minutes in 1980 as nuclear treaties were not progressed, then 4 minutes in 1981 as Russia invaded Afghanistan, and 3 minutes in 1984 as communication breaks down between the West and Russia, and the US announced 'Star Wars'. In 1991, as the Cold War ended and the US and Russia began dismantling their nuclear arsenals, it regressed as much as 17 minutes to midnight. The safest we have been in my lifetime. It didn't last. As Nuclear proliferation saw countries like North Korea get the bomb, and Iran aim to - two more existential threats were added - Information warfare and Climate change.

Since 2023, we have been at 90 Seconds to Midnight. And the Clock keeps ticking closer.

"As you watch the world crumble, try taking your Armageddon with this sprinkling of irony: Over the last three decades, business has got virtually everything it wanted, and its doomsday scenario from the 1970s has come true because of it."
Thomas Frank

Predicting the 2025 Announcement

Ahead of the official 2025 update, I decided to consult one of the existential threats - Artificial Intelligence and see what it would set the Clock at. Given AI's ability to process vast amounts of data and offer projections based on current trends, it should be an informed estimate. I asked three different systems - Their verdicts were starkly similar but not identical:

Gemini: Predicted a setting of 85 seconds to midnight.
ChatGPT: Estimated 80 seconds to midnight.
Grok: The most pessimistic, predicting 75 seconds to midnight.

All the AIs predicted we are closer to disaster.

The Spring that drives the Clock

Sceptics might dismiss the Clock as a melodramatic gimmick, but its role as a barometer for global health remains critical. Its authority stems from the expertise behind it: the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists comprises Nobel laureates and leading researchers in science, security, and environmental studies. Their deliberations synthesise various threats, from nuclear arsenals to the rise of authoritarianism and the disinformation epidemic.

The current acknowledged factors driving the Clock to midnight are -

Nuclear Risks

The suspension of New START inspections by Russia marks a significant step back in nuclear diplomacy. The New START treaty, initially signed in 2010 between the United States and Russia, was one of the last remaining arms control agreements between the two nuclear superpowers. Its mechanisms for transparency and verification provided a critical safeguard against unchecked nuclear escalation. Russia's decision to suspend its participation exacerbates global instability, signalling a potential unravelling of decades of progress on arms control (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2023).

Beyond the treaty, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait add another layer of nuclear risk. China's increasingly assertive military posture, combined with the United States' commitment to Taiwan's defence, raises fears of direct conflict between two nuclear-armed powers. A military miscalculation in the region could quickly escalate into a broader confrontation. These developments echo the dynamics of the Cold War, where proxy conflicts and ideological divides brought the world perilously close to catastrophe.

The modernisation of nuclear arsenals compounds the situation. Both the United States and Russia, along with other nuclear powers like China, India, and Pakistan, are investing in next-generation nuclear weapons, including hypersonic missiles and low-yield warheads. These innovations lower the threshold for nuclear use, increasing the likelihood of a limited nuclear exchange spiralling into a full-scale conflict.

We also now have a Fascist US president who has shown himself to be autocratic, vindictive, selfish and in mental decline - the worst person, at the worst time, to have his finger on the Atomic button.

The Climate Crisis

The last few years have brought alarming climate extremes that underscore the urgent need for action. Record-breaking heatwaves scorched Europe and Asia, causing thousands of deaths and overwhelming infrastructure. Wildfires have raged across California, Canada, Australia, and the Mediterranean, releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and decimating ecosystems (IPCC, 2023). In the Global South, devastating floods in Pakistan displaced millions, highlighting the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable populations.

Progress on emissions reduction has been woefully inadequate. Global greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels, driven by continued reliance on fossil fuels. The energy crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine led some nations to revert to coal, further derailing climate goals. Meanwhile, commitments made under the Paris Agreement remain underfunded and unfulfilled, with wealthier nations failing to provide the $100 billion per year pledged to assist developing countries in adapting to climate impacts.

One of Donald Trump's first actions as President has been to pull out of the Paris Agreement and open up drilling, fracking, and unregulate any environmental suicide as long as the company is prepared to give a hefty donation.

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report warns that we are on track to exceed the critical threshold of 1.5°C warming within the next decade, bringing irreversible changes to the planet's climate systems. Feedback loops, such as melting permafrost and declining polar ice, threaten to accelerate warming beyond human control. These developments illustrate the interconnectedness of climate risks with geopolitical and economic systems, making the need for coordinated global action all the more urgent.

Technological Dangers

The newest risk factor, but perhaps the most dangerous. The tech-Bros are an inherent part of the new fascist system. Indeed, President Musk may be more dangerous than Vice President Trump. The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has brought transformative benefits but also unprecedented risks. One of the most alarming concerns is the development of autonomous weapons systems—machines capable of selecting and engaging targets without human intervention. These weapons raise ethical questions about accountability and could spark an arms race, with nations rushing to deploy AI-driven military technologies (Tegmark, 2023).

Disinformation campaigns powered by AI also pose significant threats to democracy and social stability. Deepfake technology enables the creation of hyper-realistic fake videos, which can be used to spread false narratives, discredit political opponents, or incite unrest. The scale and speed at which AI can generate and disseminate propaganda make it a powerful tool for authoritarian regimes and non-state actors.

Additionally, the unregulated growth of AI in the private sector creates vulnerabilities. The concentration of AI capabilities in a few powerful corporations raises concerns about monopolisation and a lack of accountability. Furthermore, the societal impact of AI-driven automation, including job displacement and economic inequality, has not been adequately addressed.

Max Tegmark and other AI ethicists have called for a moratorium on the development of certain high-risk AI systems until robust regulatory frameworks can be established. Without oversight, the technology's potential to destabilise societies and exacerbate existing inequalities looms large.

Not to mention the environmental damage of AI in energy and water use.

Alarums and excursions

Those aren't the only risks, of course; they are just the headlines. The World Economic Forum 2025 Risk Assessment is a survey that breaks down many different types of risks, how they are perceived by age group, and how they are interconnected - as visualised here-

The Breakdown by Generation shows how our personal situation can impact our risk assessment.

We Must Not Snooze, We must Not Sleep In, We Must Rise: Time is running out.

The Doomsday Clock is an Alarm clock. is not a crystal ball. Its purpose is not to predict the future but to illustrate the path we're on. Whether the Bulletin moves us to 70 seconds, 85 seconds, or somewhere in between, the message remains clear: the future is in our hands.

The Good news is - there are things in our control. There are things we can do to mitigate risk, and to turn back time. State Based Conflct may feel beyond our power to control, but we can still - to some extent - influence it in protest, action and vote. Extreme Weather Events are driven by climate change - we can work against climate change and prepare a little for more extreme weather events as individuals and with Mutual Aid. We can educate ourselves and others about misinformation to help counter and prevent its spread.

By considering the risks of most concern to others, we can also build empathy and communication to organise.

What we can't afford to do is hit snooze.

“At dawn, when you have trouble getting out of bed, tell yourself: “I have to go to work — as a human being. What do I have to complain of, if I’m going to do what I was born for — the things I was brought into the world to do? Or is this what I was created for? To huddle under the blankets and stay warm?” So you were born to feel “nice”? Instead of doing things and experiencing them? Don’t you see the plants, the birds, the ants and spiders and bees going about their individual tasks, putting the world in order, as best they can? And you’re not willing to do your job as a human being? Why aren’t you running to do what your nature demands?"
Marcus Aurelius

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (2023). Current Time. Retrieved from https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
IPCC. (2023). Sixth Assessment Report. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Tegmark, M. (2023). Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter. Retrieved from https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
World Economic Forum. (2025). Global risks 2025: A world of growing divisions. Retrieved January 26th, 2025, from https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/in-full/global-risks-2025-a-world-of-growing-divisions-c943fe3ba0/