A Beginner's Guide to Collapse

"Look over the past, with its empires that rose and fell and you shall see the future too." - Marcus Aurelius

Every civilisation preceding ours, like the Etruscan, Roman, Celtic, Ottoman, Mongol, Aztec, Viking and Mayans, has collapsed, leaving us fading warnings in their ruins and our legends. Each collapse offers unique insights into the vulnerabilities of complex societies, yet taken as a whole we can also see patterns in the internal weaknesses and external pressures that crumbled their foundations. 

Considering historical collapses as precedents, a global civilisation collapse is not only likely in our lifetime but inevitable.

"Look over the past, with its empires that rose and fell and you shall see the future too."

Marcus Aurelius

History has not ended. Our civilisation is not immune to the same pressures that washed away our predecessors - in fact, in many ways, being more complex, we are more vulnerable. The Roman Empire lasted 2,000 years, and the British Empire lasted over 200. But where historical collapses were limited to Cities, Valleys, Islands, Regions or Continents in our global village, the next time collapse comes, it will surely be at a worldwide level. 

Understanding the Nature of Collapse

What exactly do we mean when we speak of the collapse of civilisations? Is it a sudden, cataclysmic event that brings about the rapid downfall of a society, or is it a gradual process, more akin to a slow fade into obscurity? The concept of collapse in historical contexts is multifaceted and can manifest in various forms.

Romani ite domum

Take, for instance, the departure of the Romans from Britain. The traditional narrative might suggest a sudden collapse marked by the end of Roman rule. However, a closer examination reveals a more gradual process. 

The decline in public services, such as the loss of sophisticated plumbing and heating systems, which once symbolised the height of Roman luxury and efficiency, could be seen as indicators of collapse. The gradual disappearance of these amenities raises the question: was the collapse marked by the moment the last Roman legion left Britain, or did it occur through the slow erosion of the societal structures and comforts they had established?

In other instances, a collapse might be marked by a significant drop in population. Historical records show that many ancient cities, once thriving centres of culture and commerce, were reduced to mere ghost towns, their populations decimated by war, disease, or environmental changes. But is a sharp population decline enough to signify a collapse, or is it merely a symptom of deeper underlying issues?

This leads to a thought-provoking consideration: do the people living through a gradual collapse even recognise what is happening? It's one thing to study the collapse of civilisation with the benefit of historical hindsight but quite another to experience it in real-time. Were the citizens of Rome left in Britain aware that their empire was crumbling, or did they believe these were temporary setbacks?

“...we can endure neither our vices nor the remedies needed to cure them.”

Livy

We must imagine that after the legions ‘left’, many ‘Romans’ remained; for a time they had mosaics, baths and temples. A child born on the date of departure could have been raised in a villa knowing Latin, Virgil and Jupiter; they might hear of past glories, but would they know they were living through collapse? 

And if they had realised, could collapses be prevented? Mitigated? or are they an inevitable part of some civilisational lifecycle? History suggests that some collapses were avoidable: if the Easter Island community had managed their resources more sustainably, could they have avoided their societal collapse? 

On the other hand, some collapses have been driven by factors beyond the control of those who experienced them, such as drastic climate changes or unforeseen natural disasters. 

No civilisation on the brink of collapse has ever changed fast enough to avert collapse.

Joel Salatin

What makes a Society ‘Complex’?

Five key features typically characterise a 'complex' society:

1. Hierarchical Social Structure: Complex societies often have a well-defined hierarchy or class system, with a clear division of roles and responsibilities. This includes a governing class - whether plutocracy, aristocracy, meritocracy, leadership, administrative bureaucracy, or various social strata.

2. Advanced Economic and Technological Systems: These societies usually exhibit advanced economic systems, including trade networks, monetary systems, and diverse forms of production and distribution. Technological systems could include the running water and underfloor heating of Roman Britain or our modern fibre internet. 

3. The specialisation of Labour: There is a significant degree of labour specialisation, with individuals or groups focusing on specific tasks or professions, contributing to the overall functioning of the society. This could be in a pre-industrial context with dairy farmers and blacksmiths or in our modern world with ever more specialised software developers. 

4. Sophisticated Cultural Institutions: Complex societies develop sophisticated cultural institutions, including educational systems, religious practices, and artistic expressions, often with significant investments in monumental architecture and public works.

5. Advanced Communication and Record-Keeping: The use of written language for communication and record-keeping is a hallmark of complex societies, allowing for the administration of large populations and the transmission of culture.

Understanding "Collapse in Complexity"

A "collapse in complexity" refers to the process where a complex society significantly loses what makes it complex - its hierarchical structure, economic systems, specialisation of labour, cultural institutions, and sophisticated means of communication and record-keeping. This collapse can manifest by considering the five traits of the complex society.

1. Simplification of Social Structures: The hierarchical and class systems become less defined or disintegrate, leading to a more homogenised social structure with fewer distinct roles. This could be a flatter hierarchy from population collapse following overshoot.

2. Economic Regression: The economy reverts to simpler forms, often characterised by reduced trade, less monetary complexity, and a return to basic forms of production and subsistence living. In past times, coins may have stopped being minted, and banking systems and markets may collapse. 

3. Loss of Specialisation: Specialised professions and roles become less viable or necessary, leading to a more generalised workforce focusing on basic survival skills. Roman Britain lost their mosaic workers. 

4. Cultural Decline: Educational systems, artistic expressions, and religious practices may lose their complexity, funding, or societal importance. Monumental architecture and public works may fall into disrepair or no longer be constructed, and even who and how they were built may be forgotten - the ancient Greeks thought Giants built the Mycenean megalithic palaces. 

5. Degradation of Communication: The use of sophisticated forms of communication, like written language, may decline, leading to a loss of record-keeping capabilities and historical knowledge. Following the Bronze Age Mediterranean collapse, writing was lost in Greece, though music and oral history remained. 

So, a collapse in complexity does not necessarily mean the utter destruction of society but rather a significant reduction in the complexity that once characterised it. This process can be gradual or rapid and is often accompanied by a decline in population, political power, and overall societal stability.

Key Precursors of Collapse

Economic Instability

Economic instability has often been a precursor to the collapse of civilisations. The Roman Empire faced severe economic challenges, including currency devaluation, resource depletion, and an over-reliance on slave labour, which weakened its economic foundation (Gibbon, 1776-1789). Scholarly research supports the notion that such economic factors, including inflation and resource shortages, have been pivotal in the downfall of many historical societies.

Political Fragmentation

Political instability and fragmentation have played central roles in the collapse of civilisations. The Ottoman Empire’s decline was marked by political strife and ineffective governance. Academic studies in political science and history have consistently shown that political instability, often manifesting as internal power struggles and weak governance, can lead to societies' weakening and eventual disintegration.

Environmental Degradation

Jared Diamond's "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" provides a compelling argument that environmental mismanagement has been a critical factor in the collapse of several civilisations (Diamond, 2005). The deforestation of Easter Island and soil erosion in the Mayan civilisation are prime examples of how environmental degradation can lead to societal collapse. These historical cases underscore the importance of sustainable environmental practices.

Pandemics and Plagues

The impact of pandemics on societal structures is historically significant. The Antonine plague weakened the Roman Empire under the last good emperor, Marcus Aurelius. The Black Death in Europe led to profound economic and social changes. The death of many workers reduced the availability of labour, leading to supply and demand to drive up wages. Scholarly research indicates that pandemics can exacerbate existing societal issues, leading to significant transformations or even the collapse of civilisations.

What’s going on in the world today?

Having identified the factors that preceded the previous collapses in complexity, what conclusions can we draw from the state of the world today? I find striking parallels and warning signs. 

Economic Instability

Since the 2008 global economic crisis, the past two decades have been marked by significant economic turmoil. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered what the International Monetary Fund describes as the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, with a cumulative loss to global GDP between 2020 and 2021 estimated at around 9 trillion dollars (International Monetary Fund, 2020). This economic instability, characterised by high unemployment rates and severe disruptions in global trade, mirrors the economic factors contributing to past civilisations' downfall.

Political Fragmentation

The past decades have also witnessed increasing political fragmentation and polarisation. According to Foreign Affairs, international cooperation is in retreat, with nations becoming more insular and less collaborative (Foreign Affairs, 2020) with trends like Brexit, Scottish Nationalism, the annexation of Crimea and more. This trend towards political fragmentation, Balkanisation, is reminiscent of the internal strife and governance challenges that marked the start of World War I and pose significant risks to global stability.

Environmental Degradation

Environmental degradation, driven by exponential population growth, remains an overwhelming concern. The decade has seen record-breaking climate events, including wildfires, hurricanes, and heatwaves, attributed to climate change and environmental mismanagement (Wikipedia, 2020s in environmental history). This ongoing environmental crisis echoes the patterns of ecological collapse observed in historical societies like Easter Island and the Mayan civilisation. 2023 is the hottest year in the past 300,000; we have breached 2 degrees warmer than pre-industrialisation twice.

Pandemics and Plagues

Does it even need to be said? The global spread of COVID-19 vividly illustrates the impact of pandemics. The pandemic has caused widespread health crises and exacerbated economic and social issues, reflecting the historical effects of pandemics like the Antonine Plague and the Black Death (NCBI, 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic underscores how modern societies are not immune to widespread disease outbreaks' transformative and often destabilising effects.

Reflecting on the Present in the Light of the Past

The parallels between the causes of historical collapses and our challenges now are striking. The differences are even more so - we have never had more mouths to feed, we have never done so much environmental damage, and we have never had such a complex, fragile society. Economic instability, political fragmentation, ecological degradation, and pandemics have all played roles in the downfall of past civilisations and are prominently present in today's global landscape. 

A global collapse in complexity is inevitable, but we should not assume that is a bad thing. We can not stop it from happening, but we can choose how to react.

It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters. When something happens, the only thing in your power is your attitude toward it; you can either accept it or resent it.

Epictetus

References

1. Diamond, J. (2005). Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Press.

2. Gibbon, E. (1776-1789). The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

3. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth. Universe Books.

4. Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press.

5. Gopinath, G. (2020, April 14). The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2020/04/14/blog-weo-the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression

6. Haass, R. N. (2020). The Price of Fragmentation in the Global Economy. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/price-fragmentation-global-economy-shock

7. Wikipedia contributors. (2020). 2020s in environmental history. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020s_in_environmental_history

8. Cucinotta, D., & Vanelli, M. (2020). WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic. Acta Biomedica, 91(1), 157–160. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7254014/