15-Minute City: Cruise Ship or Prison Barge?
In this article, inspired by a recent cruise, I explore the concept and context of the 15-minute city, examine the backlash, and consider the transformative opportunities they might offer.
I've recently returned from my first cruise. This was our first ‘big’ holiday since my wife started using a wheelchair due to long covid fatigue. Modern cruise ships are often called floating cities, and we hoped that, compared to a city break on land, everything from the shops to the restaurants and shows would all be just an easily accessible flat corridor and a lift away - and the scenery brought to us. It worked brilliantly, and the experience of navigating a self-contained environment made me appreciate the potential of 15-minute cities and wonder why there is so much resistance to them.
Opinions in every field are increasingly polarised and politicised. So perhaps it’s no surprise this applies to what might be considered the dry topic of city planning in saner times. To some commentators, including government ministers, 15-minute cities are a conspiracy of socialist globalist authoritarian control - a type of communal house arrest where the local government will observe and dictate your every behaviour, and the very concept of private property is outlawed. To others, they are a utopia that will solve every modern malaise and crisis, from housing, mental health and cost of living to reconciling economic recovery with fighting climate change.
In this article, I explore the concept and context of the 15-minute city, examine the backlash being whipped up against them, and consider the transformative opportunities they might offer for our economic, environmental and social recovery.
Is Man a political animal?
The concept of such a convenient community conurbation isn't exactly radical or new. When Aristotle wrote “πολιτικὸν ὁ ἄνθρωπος ζῷον.” - Man is a political animal” he wasn’t referring to modern party politics, he meant that human communities are naturally organised in the city (polis). His point was rather that the city is our natural habitat in the same way a hive is the natural habitat of bees, the warren is the natural habitat of rabbits, and the jungle is the natural habitat of chickens.
While Sparta, Corinth and Athens had very different social structures and organisations, from a two-king monarchy to democracy, still the Greek city-state was the standard political unit of Aristotle's time. With populations ranging from a few thousand to tens of thousands (Athens, at its peak, had an estimated population of around 300,000, with the central urban area accommodating about 20,000 to 30,000 residents (Osborne, 1996). This population size aligns closely with the envisioned scale of a 15-minute city) they were self-contained units where all civic, social, and economic activities occurred within a compact urban space. e. - so this ancient model of urban living can inform our modern urban aspirations.
In the polis, all essential aspects of life were integrated within a compact urban space. The agora, or marketplace, served as the hub of economic activity and social interaction while public spaces such as theatres, gyms, and temples facilitated cultural and civic engagement such as assemblies and courts (Hansen, 2006). This fostered a strong sense of community and mutual dependency, much like the 15-minute city aims to do.
What is a 15 minute city?
The "15-minute city" concept is an urban planning and design strategy aimed at improving the quality of life by reducing the need for long commutes. Coined by Professor Carlos Moreno at the Sorbonne University in Paris, the idea emphasises that all necessary amenities should be accessible within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from one's home. This includes workplaces, schools, healthcare facilities, shops, parks, and entertainment venues (Moreno et al., 2021).
It is a logical evolution from earlier urban planning philosophies. In the early twentieth century, Clarence Perry’s "neighbourhood unit" conceptualised self-sufficient communities within larger cities. The ‘Garden City’ developments proposed by Ebenezer Howard, also in the early 20th century, sought to combine the benefits of urban and rural living. Self-contained communities with a balanced mix of residences, industry, and agriculture would be surrounded by green spaces, creating a pleasant and efficient place to live.
The modern iteration builds on these ideas, integrating sustainable transport options and digital infrastructure to foster more connected, resilient communities. Emotionally it can perhaps be seen as an urban recreation of village life, but it has been designed using decades of global research into how communities work, grow and fail.
Characteristics of 15-Minute Cities
There is not a one-design 15-minute city plan; instead, there are 5 key characteristics or recommendations. Different cultures and cities can interpret how they might be best implemented.
Mixed-Use Development: Encouraging diverse land use to ensure residential, commercial, and recreational spaces coexist within close proximity (Gehl, 2010).
Sustainable Mobility: Prioritising walking, cycling, and public transport over car usage to reduce emissions and improve air quality (Newman & Kenworthy, 2015).
Localised Services: Ensuring essential services like schools, healthcare, and groceries are distributed evenly throughout neighbourhoods (Rydin et al., 2012).
Green Spaces: Incorporating parks and recreational areas to enhance residents' well-being and environmental health (Beatley, 2011).
Community Engagement: Fostering local participation in urban planning to ensure developments meet the needs of residents (Arnstein, 1969).
“This ecological transformation is based on four pillars: proximity, diversity, density, and ubiquity − aiming to fulfil the basic social functions of living, working, supplying, caring, learning and enjoying.”
Deloitte
Advantages of 15-Minute Cities
The benefits of the model are considerable -
Economic Resilience: Local businesses thrive due to increased foot traffic, and the economy becomes more resilient to global shocks (Dijkstra, 2020).
Enhanced Quality of Life: Reduced commute times allow for more leisure and family time, enhancing overall life satisfaction (Moreno et al., 2021).
Environmental Sustainability: Lower reliance on cars reduces carbon emissions and pollution, contributing to global sustainability goals (Newman & Kenworthy, 2015).
Health Benefits: Increased physical activity through walking and cycling promotes better health outcomes and reduces healthcare costs (Frumkin, 2003).
In the Future, Every conspiracy will be famous for 15 minutes
“What is sinister and what we shouldn't tolerate is the idea that local councils can decide how often you go to the shops and that they ration who uses the roads and when, and they police it all with CCTV."
Conservative Transport Minister Mark Harper MP 2023 BBC
The 15-minute city concept has been misrepresented in political discourse globally. Some factions have mischaracterised 15-minute cities as government overreach, falsely claiming they restrict personal freedoms, are anti-car or are overly idealistic. (Peters, 2023).
The above quote from UK Government Minister Mark Harper leans into the ‘Prison Barge’ interpretation, and in the UK government, he wasn’t alone in his views . Nick Fletcher, Conservative MP and conspiracy theorist, demand a debate on…
“The international socialist concept of so-called 15-minute cities which will take away personal freedoms".
Nick Fletcher MP Hansard
While UK Health Minister Maria Caulfield currently faces calls to refer herself to parliamentary ethics committee after distributing inaccurate leaflets making false claims that her local Lib Dem council planned to restrict people's freedom as part of a 15 minute city plan.
The Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt MP. has commissioned a guide for MPs on recognising conspiracy theories. The idea that 15-minute cities are a backdoor to authoritarian control is specifically highlighted as one of eight conspiracy theories in the guide that MPs should avoid spreading (others including QAnon and its Shape-shifting paedophile Lizards, the dangers of 5G masts and pro-Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine.)
Warning her colleagues against spreading these conspiracy theories, Mordaunt stated-
“If they (these conspiracies) go unchallenged, we risk the public being conned and their wellbeing potentially damaged.”
Penny Mordaunt, MP.
There are valid concerns and conversations to be had about 15 minute city proposals - but on examination these tend to be arguments about implementation and feasibility, rather than against the concept itself or it's goals. Some of the concerns raised include;
Economic Inequality: Ensuring all communities have equal access to amenities can be challenging, potentially exacerbating existing inequalities (Glaeser, 2011).
Urban Density: If not managed correctly, high density can lead to overcrowding, negatively impacting living conditions (Burton, 2000).
Infrastructure Costs: The initial investment required to redesign urban spaces can be substantial, straining public budgets (Seto et al., 2014).
These are also all existing problems within organic urban sprawl.
London’s Burning: Missed Opportunities for Urban Transformation
As long as we have had cities, they have gone through periods of growth, destruction and rebuilding. Schliemann's archaeological efforts, as destructive and subjective as as they were illuminating, revealed that Troy was not a single, static city but a complex site composed of multiple layers, each representing distinct periods of construction, destruction, and rebuilding from the Bronze age and Homer’s Ilium of Troy VII to the later Roman and Greek architecture and city planning.
Similarly, London was rebuilt after the Boudican destruction, the Great Fire of 1666, and the Blitz. These events presented unique opportunities for comprehensive urban transformation, but we can, with hindsight, see missed opportunities and unintended consequences.
Visionary Proposals and Philosophies
After the ‘Great Fire’, Enlightenment thinkers and architects proposed ambitious plans to reconstruct the city. Influenced by contemporary philosophies of order, symmetry, and public welfare, these plans aimed to redesign London with wide boulevards, public squares, and rational street grids. Sir Christopher Wren, known for St. Paul's, envisioned a city reflecting the rationality and harmony espoused by Enlightenment thought. John Evelyn suggested wider streets and firebreaks to prevent future fires, underpinned by the belief in progress and public welfare (Schofield, 2011; Summerson, 1963).
The post-World War II period saw a wave of utopian schemes aimed at transforming London into a modern, efficient metropolis. The extensive bombing during the Blitz necessitated a comprehensive rebuilding effort. Planners like Sir Patrick Abercrombie and J.H. Forshaw, through the 1943 County of London Plan, proposed radical changes, including decentralising population and industry, creating green belts, and developing new towns to reduce urban density. These ideas were heavily influenced by the garden city movement which aimed to enhance quality of life and promote social harmony (Abercrombie & Forshaw, 1943; Ward, 2002).
Challenges and Realities of Reconstruction
Despite these visionary proposals, the reconstruction efforts following both the Great Fire and the Blitz faced significant obstacles. After the fire, the conflicting interests of property owners, the urgency to rebuild, and financial constraints led to a piecemeal rebuilding process that largely followed medieval street patterns. The lack of a central authority to enforce a unified vision meant that the Enlightenment-inspired plans were set aside in favour of pragmatic, short-term solutions (Hanson, 1989; Porter, 1998).
Post-war reconstruction faced economic constraints, political resistance, and the complexities of recovery. While large-scale public housing projects were quickly implemented to address the housing crisis, many developments, such as high-rise estates, had poor design and maintenance, leading to social issues (Hanley, 2007). The emphasis on separating residential areas from commercial and industrial zones resulted in urban sprawl and increased reliance on cars, contradicting the goal of cohesive, walkable communities (Glendinning, 2010).
Long-term Impacts and Lessons
The decisions made during these critical reconstruction periods have had lasting impacts on modern London. The medieval street plan retained after the Great Fire contributes to contemporary issues such as traffic congestion, pollution, and inefficient transportation networks. Narrow, winding streets are ill-suited for modern traffic volumes, leading to chronic congestion and higher emissions, exacerbating pollution levels (Glaeser, 2011). The fragmented urban design also impacts the quality of life for residents, limiting green spaces and pedestrian-friendly areas (Frumkin, 2003).
While post-war reconstruction succeeded in rebuilding the city, it has produced mixed results in terms of achieving its utopian ideals. Many high-rise estates have been demolished or redeveloped due to their failure to provide the promised quality of life. The separation of functions within the city has contributed to ongoing challenges such as traffic congestion and social isolation (Hall, 2002).
Rethinking the Post-Pandemic Polis
The COVID-19 pandemic catalysed a seismic shift in work patterns, with mandatory work-from-home orders transforming many inner-city commercial areas. Once bustling business districts have turned into ghost towns as offices stay empty and pret-a-mangers close their doors. This abrupt change highlighted the vulnerability of urban economies heavily reliant on daily commuters.
While it is not physical destruction along the lines of a fire or blitz, the pandemic still presents a unique opportunity to rethink and repurpose these now underutilised cities. This opportunity is being squandered. Vested interests, particularly those of commercial landlords and their investors, are resistant to change. They have a significant financial stake in maintaining the status quo of high office occupancy rates and commercial rents. Similarly, some CEOs, clinging to pre-pandemic norms, are issuing return-to-office mandates despite evidence that remote work is both feasible and preferable for many employees (Bloom et al., 2020).
I used to get up at 6:20am and drive over an hour into Glasgow to work in an office on a computer with an international team- a job I can easily do, and do better, remotely. Before that I did the same on a costly and overcrowded train. That system already seems distant madness to me now - such a costly waste of time, petrol and resources. Glasgow city centre has become a desolate and degraded wasteland of shuttered shops, juvenile junkies and growing garbage - the combined efforts of the Pandemic and a newly incompetent local government administration, and that saddens me, but not enough that I'd return to the office.
The pandemic-induced shift to remote work exposed the fragility of our inner-city commercial areas but it also offers a golden opportunity for their transformation. Local and National Governments who adopt innovative policies could help build communities that slow the rate and lessen the impact of the coming collapse in complexity. And it isn't rocket science - the policies are tried and tested:
Incentives for Repurposing Buildings: Tax incentives and grants for property owners who convert commercial spaces into residential or mixed-use developments can stimulate the transformation process (Hsieh & Moretti, 2019).
Affordable Housing Mandates: Enforcing affordable housing quotas in new developments ensures inclusivity and mitigates the risk of gentrification (Glaeser, 2011).
Investment in Public Transport and Infrastructure: Enhancing public transport and infrastructure to support new urban patterns is crucial. This includes expanding bike lanes, pedestrian paths, and public transport networks (Newman & Kenworthy, 2015).
Community Engagement: Engaging local communities in the planning process ensures that developments meet residents' needs and garner public support (Arnstein, 1969).
Learning from global examples and implementing bold, innovative policies can turn these urban ghost towns into thriving, sustainable communities.
We owned nothing, and were happy
The misquote, "In the future, you will own nothing and be happy," is often linked to the World Economic Forum ‘great reset’ plan, actually, it’s a misrepresentation taken out of a screengrab of an employee talking, blown out of proportion, and misinterpreted to be an attack on private property; normally framed is as an attack on car ownership.
The current rate of car ownership is unsustainable. Population and demand grow faster than infrastructure can be expanded, as our roads get congested, and petrol and parking become more expensive. As we move to electric vehicles, there simply isn't the copper, cobalt, and other resources to replace fossil fuel cars in a 1:1 ratio.
Thinking of my cruise-ships experience the lift is a direct example of how effective public transport would work in a well designed 15 minute city. Two banks of six lifts efficiently and affordably transported all passengers to recreation, entertainment, dining, accommodation, exercise facilities, medical services, and workspaces. While there were occasional waits, the system was convenient, even with a wheelchair, illustrating the benefits of shared resources.
It would be madness to design a ship so each individual cabin had it's own lift. There would be high cost, infrastructure waste, pollution and overall a far poorer experience. But putting in the lefts didn’t mean the cruise needed to ban people from using the stairs, you just need to provide a more cost and time efficient alternative that isn’t horrible and people will use it.
This shared infrastructure on the cruise ship mirrors the vision of the 15-minute city, where convenience and accessibility are prioritised over individual ownership.
Retirement Planning
It's ironic that the demographic of many of the voters being targeted with the conspiracy narratives against 15-minute cities are those at, or approaching retirement - because increasingly, those who can afford it are retiring to cruise ships for the convenience and high quality of life they offer! On a cruise ship, they own nothing, and they are happy. They are living the 15-minute city dream.
Change is a constant, and we’ve done it before. When I entered the workforce from University, I lived in a flat that used to be a mill, working in a business park with a hundred small businesses that used to be a cigarette factory.
By adopting the principles of the 15-minute city, we can create more sustainable, resilient, and liveable environments. The alternative is that things get worse at a faster rate. Embracing this vision requires bold policies and a departure from vested interests clinging to outdated models.
Ultimately, the 15-minute city idea - along with use of technology, smart cities, and eco-planning offers a pathway to a future where urban living is more efficient, more enjoyable and more equitable.
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